Brazil's Dry South in Desperate Need of Rain
(DTN) Stunted, sparsely leaved soybeans. That's what you see across most of northwestern Rio Grande do Sul.
Now, with most of the plants in the flowering or pod-filling stage, the arrival of fresh rains has become vital to save the crop, farmers say.
"Soybeans losses could be restricted to as little to 20% in some areas, if the rains are perfect from now on," said Fernando Martins, marketing director at Cotrijal cooperative, based in the northwestern town of Nao-Me-Toque
"But the crop is highly stressed and we could have a disaster as well," he added.
Rio Grande do Sul produced a record crop of 11.2 million metric tons of soybeans last year. But a La Nina-induced dry spell that has lasted around 90 days in the big-producing northwest -- other areas have fared better -- means output will fall dramatically in 2011-12, despite a small increase in planting area and heavier investment in crop inputs.
On Monday, Celeres, a Brazil-based farm consultancy, lowered its number for the state's crop to 8.5 mmt, although local agronomists fear the eventual figure could be lower.
"I have just had an agronomist come through my office predicting 6 mmt ... That's pretty pessimistic, but the state will probably struggle to produce 8 mmt this year," said David Brew, director of the Brasoja grain brokerage, based in the state capital of Porto Alegre.
Showers in late January broke a 50-day drought in the northwest, offering hope for soybeans. However, rainfall has been spotty since then, much to the dismay of farmers.
"It's been a lottery whether you receive showers. For example, we received rain 15 days ago but have had no more since then," said Valde Luiz Baratto, commercial manager at the Cotripal cooperative in Panambi, northwestern Rio Grande do Sul.
Baratto estimates soybeans around Panambi can only achieve 50% of their yield potential because of the dry weather.
Harvesting has started across most of Brazil, and Rio Grande do Sul is almost alone in having a significant portion of the crop still in the flowering stage. As such, the drought in Rio Grande do Sul is now perhaps the biggest single determining factor in the size of the Brazilian crops this year.
Brazilian crop forecasts have been almost universally trimmed over the past couple of weeks from a range of 72 mmt to 75.5 mmt to between 70 mmt and 73.5 mmt. Any further reductions would likely come from greater losses in Rio Grande do Sul, the No. 3 producing state.
The situation is so delicate because soil moisture levels are critically low -- the northwest received less than half the expected precipitation for November, December and January.
The good news is that a slow-moving cold front is due to bring rain on Wednesday or Thursday, although coverage is expected to be weak and spotty, according to the local Somar weather service.
While the soybeans have a chance to recover, it is too late for the corn crop, which will probably come in half the size of last year. These kinds of losses will hurt the local economy with farmers missing out on $3 billion in revenues because of the adverse weather, according to FARSUL, the state agricultural federation.
www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com
Now, with most of the plants in the flowering or pod-filling stage, the arrival of fresh rains has become vital to save the crop, farmers say.
"Soybeans losses could be restricted to as little to 20% in some areas, if the rains are perfect from now on," said Fernando Martins, marketing director at Cotrijal cooperative, based in the northwestern town of Nao-Me-Toque
"But the crop is highly stressed and we could have a disaster as well," he added.
Rio Grande do Sul produced a record crop of 11.2 million metric tons of soybeans last year. But a La Nina-induced dry spell that has lasted around 90 days in the big-producing northwest -- other areas have fared better -- means output will fall dramatically in 2011-12, despite a small increase in planting area and heavier investment in crop inputs.
On Monday, Celeres, a Brazil-based farm consultancy, lowered its number for the state's crop to 8.5 mmt, although local agronomists fear the eventual figure could be lower.
"I have just had an agronomist come through my office predicting 6 mmt ... That's pretty pessimistic, but the state will probably struggle to produce 8 mmt this year," said David Brew, director of the Brasoja grain brokerage, based in the state capital of Porto Alegre.
Showers in late January broke a 50-day drought in the northwest, offering hope for soybeans. However, rainfall has been spotty since then, much to the dismay of farmers.
"It's been a lottery whether you receive showers. For example, we received rain 15 days ago but have had no more since then," said Valde Luiz Baratto, commercial manager at the Cotripal cooperative in Panambi, northwestern Rio Grande do Sul.
Baratto estimates soybeans around Panambi can only achieve 50% of their yield potential because of the dry weather.
Harvesting has started across most of Brazil, and Rio Grande do Sul is almost alone in having a significant portion of the crop still in the flowering stage. As such, the drought in Rio Grande do Sul is now perhaps the biggest single determining factor in the size of the Brazilian crops this year.
Brazilian crop forecasts have been almost universally trimmed over the past couple of weeks from a range of 72 mmt to 75.5 mmt to between 70 mmt and 73.5 mmt. Any further reductions would likely come from greater losses in Rio Grande do Sul, the No. 3 producing state.
The situation is so delicate because soil moisture levels are critically low -- the northwest received less than half the expected precipitation for November, December and January.
The good news is that a slow-moving cold front is due to bring rain on Wednesday or Thursday, although coverage is expected to be weak and spotty, according to the local Somar weather service.
While the soybeans have a chance to recover, it is too late for the corn crop, which will probably come in half the size of last year. These kinds of losses will hurt the local economy with farmers missing out on $3 billion in revenues because of the adverse weather, according to FARSUL, the state agricultural federation.
www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com
Posted by Colvin & Co. at 2/9/2012 5:23 AM 
Categories: Farmland
Tags: farmland Planting soybeans corn Brazil Drought
Categories: Farmland
Tags: farmland Planting soybeans corn Brazil Drought
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