Agriculture Can't Agree With Science on Climate Change
(DTN) Scientists say they have built a compelling case that the agricultural community needs to prepare for what will come with more greenhouse gases, higher temperatures and more volatility in weather patterns.
"For a few lucky farmers, the change will translate into higher yields and income. For the vast majority, it's going to take significant resources to adapt ... I give a different talk to farmers where I ask 'Are you willing to bet your farm on climate change being good?'"
But American farmers and agricultural policymakers for now don't see enough signs on the horizon to worry. Instead, they see a polarizing topic they would just as soon avoid. That's highlighted by leaders of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees opting to write a farm bill without examining what climate or soil scientists are saying about climate change, its effects on food production, and food security.
As former Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman explained, farm leaders ignore the topic just as agriculture takes on a new level of importance in the country and globally. Everyone knows about the number of people on the horizon -- 9 billion by 2050 -- and what it will take to meet those future food challenges.
"Food and agriculture is slowly moving up the chain to take an equal place with health care, energy and national security. For too long we were not viewed as important. I think that has changed," said Glickman, now a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center and co-chairman of the group AGree.
Several major foundations funded AGree specifically to help craft long-term policy strategies for agriculture on sensitive topics such as climate change. It's become hard to sift through all the chaff and figure what is the appropriate research data, Glickman said. Further, what can be done in terms of food and conservation policy to give farmers more tools?
"Whether it's caused by a profound change issue or more natural reoccurring issue, there is something happening out there," Glickman said. "Right now, it's gotten so caught up in the political debate. I don't know what the Department of Agriculture should be doing, but I don't think we can bury our heads in the sand and not think it's going to affect farmers and ranchers."
Indiana farmer Jim Moseley is another AGree co-chair with Glickman and a former deputy secretary of agriculture from 2001-2005.
"Today, I think there are a lot of people out there, if you ask them seriously, asking farmers out there, I don't know if you can get a 50% majority saying affirmatively. I don't think we're convinced yet. That's the reason I ask that question, 'Are we convinced yet that we have it?' Because if we aren't, then it's going to be extremely difficult to do adaptation. And ultimately, that's what this is about."
Iowa farmer Varel Bailey, who sometimes talks to city residents about climate change and farmers for the American Farmland Trust, said the division in rural America over climate science is pretty apparent. "Out here in the country people are 40-40-20. Forty percent think it's a hoax created by Hollywood. Forty percent think Al Gore is a God for putting all this out there for us, and 20% don't know."
Data from the 2011 Iowa Farm and Rural Life Poll shows 10% of farmers in the state believe climate change is occurring and caused mainly by human activities. Just under 35% say climate change is occurring, but it is due to a combination of human and natural occurrences. Another 23% say climate change is happening, but it's mainly due to the environment. Collectively, 68% of farmers believe in some manner the climate is changing, and 45% say humans are playing a role.
About 28% of Iowa farmers said there is not sufficient evidence to determine if the climate is changing. Another 4.5% said the climate is not changing.
About half the farmers believe that extreme events will be more common and were concerned about results in the state. About one-third were concerned about the effects on their own farm, according to Arbuckle's findings.
"We don't know what the future holds necessarily," said J. Gordon Arbuckle, a rural sociologist at Iowa State University. "The climate scientists say we're going to have more frequent and extreme rain events. They are going to happen more generally from early to late spring. Those are the times when the ground is unprotected before the crop canopy really comes up and does its job of protecting the soils."
Over the next couple of years Moseley wants AGree to break down the science and data, to better understand where scientists are getting their information and assumptions. The point is that data can't be anecdotal, it has to be scientifically based. The question also is whether the changes are as dramatic and serious as some have portrayed them.
"I guess the thing that catches my attention is we blame so many things on climate change today and most notably the radical weather and so forth that we have today. That seems to be the empirical evidence that something is going on."
Like many farmers, Moseley said he can sit down with his wife and talk about all of the weather situations that have happened in agriculture over their 60-plus years.
"We've always had these anomalies in weather and as a farmer you remember them: 1972 it rained for three months solid; in 1974, it rained in the spring and we had a frost on Sept. 7; 1980, '83, '88 we had droughts. You start putting all of that together and all of sudden you can't start making the statement that all of the weather anomalies today are related to climate change."
The survey showed 43% of all farmers were concerned about the potential effects of climate change on Iowa agriculture. About 46% of farmers also believed that extreme weather events will happen more frequently in the future.
Though fewer farmers were concerned about the effects of climate change, 61% of those polled said the state's farmers should take additional steps to protect their land from increased precipitation. Not all farmers believe that equally. Among farmers who believe climate change is happening, 83% believe more land management should be done. Seventy-six percent of farmers who do not believe in climate change did not think more steps should be taken.
One of the challenges with addressing climate change at the federal level is that there is currently a lot of distrust of federal agencies. Among all farmers, 23% generally trust federal agencies, 29% are neutral and 49% distrust the agencies. Those farmers who are unsure or don't believe in climate change have higher distrust levels of 60% and 77%, respectively.
"A lot of distrust, particularly among those folks that don't believe climate change is something humans are contributing to," Arbuckle said.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com
"For a few lucky farmers, the change will translate into higher yields and income. For the vast majority, it's going to take significant resources to adapt ... I give a different talk to farmers where I ask 'Are you willing to bet your farm on climate change being good?'"
But American farmers and agricultural policymakers for now don't see enough signs on the horizon to worry. Instead, they see a polarizing topic they would just as soon avoid. That's highlighted by leaders of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees opting to write a farm bill without examining what climate or soil scientists are saying about climate change, its effects on food production, and food security.
As former Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman explained, farm leaders ignore the topic just as agriculture takes on a new level of importance in the country and globally. Everyone knows about the number of people on the horizon -- 9 billion by 2050 -- and what it will take to meet those future food challenges.
"Food and agriculture is slowly moving up the chain to take an equal place with health care, energy and national security. For too long we were not viewed as important. I think that has changed," said Glickman, now a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center and co-chairman of the group AGree.
Several major foundations funded AGree specifically to help craft long-term policy strategies for agriculture on sensitive topics such as climate change. It's become hard to sift through all the chaff and figure what is the appropriate research data, Glickman said. Further, what can be done in terms of food and conservation policy to give farmers more tools?
"Whether it's caused by a profound change issue or more natural reoccurring issue, there is something happening out there," Glickman said. "Right now, it's gotten so caught up in the political debate. I don't know what the Department of Agriculture should be doing, but I don't think we can bury our heads in the sand and not think it's going to affect farmers and ranchers."
Indiana farmer Jim Moseley is another AGree co-chair with Glickman and a former deputy secretary of agriculture from 2001-2005.
"Today, I think there are a lot of people out there, if you ask them seriously, asking farmers out there, I don't know if you can get a 50% majority saying affirmatively. I don't think we're convinced yet. That's the reason I ask that question, 'Are we convinced yet that we have it?' Because if we aren't, then it's going to be extremely difficult to do adaptation. And ultimately, that's what this is about."
Iowa farmer Varel Bailey, who sometimes talks to city residents about climate change and farmers for the American Farmland Trust, said the division in rural America over climate science is pretty apparent. "Out here in the country people are 40-40-20. Forty percent think it's a hoax created by Hollywood. Forty percent think Al Gore is a God for putting all this out there for us, and 20% don't know."
Data from the 2011 Iowa Farm and Rural Life Poll shows 10% of farmers in the state believe climate change is occurring and caused mainly by human activities. Just under 35% say climate change is occurring, but it is due to a combination of human and natural occurrences. Another 23% say climate change is happening, but it's mainly due to the environment. Collectively, 68% of farmers believe in some manner the climate is changing, and 45% say humans are playing a role.
About 28% of Iowa farmers said there is not sufficient evidence to determine if the climate is changing. Another 4.5% said the climate is not changing.
About half the farmers believe that extreme events will be more common and were concerned about results in the state. About one-third were concerned about the effects on their own farm, according to Arbuckle's findings.
"We don't know what the future holds necessarily," said J. Gordon Arbuckle, a rural sociologist at Iowa State University. "The climate scientists say we're going to have more frequent and extreme rain events. They are going to happen more generally from early to late spring. Those are the times when the ground is unprotected before the crop canopy really comes up and does its job of protecting the soils."
Over the next couple of years Moseley wants AGree to break down the science and data, to better understand where scientists are getting their information and assumptions. The point is that data can't be anecdotal, it has to be scientifically based. The question also is whether the changes are as dramatic and serious as some have portrayed them.
"I guess the thing that catches my attention is we blame so many things on climate change today and most notably the radical weather and so forth that we have today. That seems to be the empirical evidence that something is going on."
Like many farmers, Moseley said he can sit down with his wife and talk about all of the weather situations that have happened in agriculture over their 60-plus years.
"We've always had these anomalies in weather and as a farmer you remember them: 1972 it rained for three months solid; in 1974, it rained in the spring and we had a frost on Sept. 7; 1980, '83, '88 we had droughts. You start putting all of that together and all of sudden you can't start making the statement that all of the weather anomalies today are related to climate change."
The survey showed 43% of all farmers were concerned about the potential effects of climate change on Iowa agriculture. About 46% of farmers also believed that extreme weather events will happen more frequently in the future.
Though fewer farmers were concerned about the effects of climate change, 61% of those polled said the state's farmers should take additional steps to protect their land from increased precipitation. Not all farmers believe that equally. Among farmers who believe climate change is happening, 83% believe more land management should be done. Seventy-six percent of farmers who do not believe in climate change did not think more steps should be taken.
One of the challenges with addressing climate change at the federal level is that there is currently a lot of distrust of federal agencies. Among all farmers, 23% generally trust federal agencies, 29% are neutral and 49% distrust the agencies. Those farmers who are unsure or don't believe in climate change have higher distrust levels of 60% and 77%, respectively.
"A lot of distrust, particularly among those folks that don't believe climate change is something humans are contributing to," Arbuckle said.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com
Posted by Colvin & Co. at 11/14/2011 5:30 AM 
Categories: Food Security
Tags: agriculture farmland corn farming soybeans wheat Weather food water
Categories: Food Security
Tags: agriculture farmland corn farming soybeans wheat Weather food water
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