Ag's Greatest Challenge - Can Farmers Feed a Growing World?
(DTN) Welcome to the greatest challenge ever to face agriculture.
About 7 billion people now live on the planet. Over the next four decades, the equivalent of more than one and a half Chinas will be added, and, by 2050, world population will hit 9 billion, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) projects.
Those people have to eat. Many, particularly in China and India, have more disposable income than ever and want additional protein in their diet. At the same time, demand for corn to make ethanol may continue to increase. All of this means grain production needs to double in 40 years, the FAO says. It will be an unprecedented market opportunity for farmers and ranchers who can rev up production systems to meet the challenge.
"The future is extremely bright for the U.S., where farmers should see higher-than-historic prices. It will still be a commodity business, and there will be a lot of volatility around that trend line, but things look very positive long-term," says Robert Thompson, who through the years has served as Purdue University's agriculture dean, the World Bank's director of rural development and USDA's assistant secretary for economics, among other positions.
Agricultural ministers of the G20 countries focused on food security at a Paris meeting this summer, calling for more research and improved productivity to reduce supply volatility. About the same time, the Global Harvest Initiative group (www.globalharvestinitiative.org) issued a report outlining a $90 billion annual shortfall in agricultural research funding. That gap makes the task of doubling agricultural productivity in 40 years a formidable one, says William Lesher, the group's executive director.
MUTUAL RESOURCEFULNESS
Yet, it's crucial the world's farmers find ways to do it. "We have the tools to be successful in meeting the great global challenge of our time -- to essentially double agricultural production to meet the demands of the nine billion who will crowd our planet in the year 2050," says Jim Borel, DuPont executive vice president.
To do that requires "collaborative ingenuity," he says, with agribusiness companies, universities, government researchers and agricultural producers working together to find solutions.
"The highly productive U.S. agriculture sector has played a key role in meeting global demand in the past and will continue to do so as producers innovate and adopt new technologies," says Doug DeVries, Deere & Co. senior vice president of agriculture and turf global marketing services. "And that innovation must continue to meet society's future needs."
Adds DuPont's Borel: "As an innovation industry, we should adopt principles of creativity from our agricultural past and other fields in our technological present. With collaborative ingenuity, I am confident that we will build solutions that will surpass agricultural trend lines. In this case, historical trends are not, I believe, a speed limit on the future."
Breaking those barriers may mean changing how we do business. "We have to come out with technologies that drive improvement going forward," says Jennifer Shaw, head of sustainability for North America at Syngenta. "If we stick with today's practices, we may never get there. We have to develop outcome-based metrics. What are the practices and new technologies we could develop that move the needle further toward these outcomes?"
Meeting the new demand curve will require every bit of efficiency farmers and ranchers can muster. Doubling production with the same amount of water used today, or even less, will be necessary. Food prices, which have spiked and caused periodic riots in developing nations since 2007, will most likely continue climbing. Oxfam International, a British charity whose goal is to "find lasting solutions to poverty and injustice," estimates that demand for food will increase 70% by 2050, while the prices of key commodities like corn will rise 120% to 180% by 2030.
QUANTUM LEAP?
Along with pumped-up demand, can U.S. crop yields increase at an appreciable rate? Corn yields since 1980 have increased annually by an average of just under 2 bushels per acre. For soybeans, the trend is 0.4 bushels. After 5,000 years of plant-breeding work to get to this point, is it reasonable to expect a huge leap in a couple of decades?
Robb Fraley, Monsanto chief technology officer, thinks so. He predicts 2000-level corn and soybean yields will double by 2030 in the U.S., but also in countries where farmers have access to current and anticipated seed choices. That means national yield averages of 400-plus-bushel-per-acre corn could be commonplace on prime Corn Belt soils. Fraley says the boost will come from a combination of factors, including genetic improvement, biotech traits, improved farm-management practices, seed and fungicide treatments, and even architectural changes in the plant itself.
"Plant breeding is going through a complete renaissance. The industry has made remarkable advances the last few years," Fraley says, pointing out the importance of using gene mapping. "Ten years ago, the best plant breeders used to keep track of a dozen or so gene markers. Now they look at thousands of markers. In a couple of years, they'll track every gene in corn."
Gerald Tumbleson, a corn/soybean grower in Sherburn, Minn., and former National Corn Growers Association president, thinks yields will indeed double by 2030, but he won't be satisfied with that.
"We're increasing corn yield, but have done it with traits and the same germplasm. I want to see a quantum leap in germplasm," Tumbleson says. His ideal corn hybrid: A 4-foot-tall plant with two ears instead of a 10- or 12-foot stalk with one ear. "The reason we need it is water, which is going to be a critical issue," he continues. "We can do that if we put efforts to it. Corn has the potential to make an ear at every leaf."
SKEPTICS ABOUT INCREASING YIELDS
Not everyone agrees the seed and trait companies will coax yields beyond long-term trend lines. One prominent skeptic is Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute and author of numerous books on food, economic and environmental issues. "I don't think we're going to see doubling yields. We're too close to the limits of photosynthesis now. As long as we're dependent on it, we're constrained by that limit," Brown says.
He points out world rice and wheat yields flattened during the past decade. "Farmers have caught up with the scientists. That doesn't mean someone won't come up with something. But it's like record times for the mile run. Runners made big cuts until that first 4-minute mile. Since then, the cuts in times have been incremental. It's a physiological thing for plants as well as animals," he says.
Whatever level yields eventually hit, U.S. farmers will continue using cutting-edge technology in an effort to efficiently produce more grain. As many see it, that is the only way to do business.
"We have a moral and ethical imperative to step up our efforts. If people are going to bed hungry, and you have the ability to feed them, you have to do your best to do that," says Bart Ruth, Rising City, Neb., corn/soybean farmer and former American Soybean Association president.
"I am not sure it's possible to double U.S. corn yields by 2030; that is truly an ambitious goal, and I admire Monsanto for having the courage to publicly proclaim it," says Kevin Pixley, University of Wisconsin plant breeder and leader of the corn biofortification project at CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center). "I would not be disappointed if they achieve half of that, but I would be disappointed if they, and all of us in the agriculture sector, did not try.
"My main theme is that it should be doable to double yields in some of the second, third, fourth, fifth most important producing nations," he continues. "This would make a huge impact toward meeting global needs, perhaps making it non-essential to double U.S. corn yields, and perhaps representing a more worthy goal."
PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA
How much developing can nations improve their ag output remains the biggest question mark in the food dilemma picture. For now, corn yield in sub-Saharan Africa stagnates at a level of production U.S. farmers reached by World War II.
"In many developing countries, crop yields are extremely low; they haven't started to take advantage of the scientific and technological innovations," says Gebisa Ejeta, a native of Ethiopia who is a Purdue University plant genetics professor and winner of the 2009 World Food Prize. "There is a much greater chance of increasing yield potential there if we can work on things like drought tolerance and pest and disease resistance like we have done in the developed world.
"We need to encourage private sector investment in developing countries," she adds. "Then improving yields becomes a much easier task. Just in the last seven or eight years, in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, we have seen technology making a difference in people's lives. We need to make sure there is more and more access to it," Ejeta says.
Danielle Nierenberg, director of the Worldwatch Institute's Nourishing the Planet initiative financed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, looked at agricultural projects in 25 sub-Saharan nations over 16 weeks earlier this year. She saw lots of room for improvement, but noted positive changes, as well (www.nourishingtheplanet.org).
"The big seed and agrichemical companies are working there now, which is good, but this new investment needs to focus on food sovereignty for farmers and consumers, not on corporate agriculture," Nierenberg says.
"We're seeing lots of involvement by China in sub-Saharan Africa to try to meet its own food needs," she continues. "The Chinese are buying land in Africa. They're building roads to make it easier for farmers to get to market. In some cases, they're the only ones building infrastructure. They're in those countries that are most at risk for hunger."
Developing nations could indeed be a good market for modern agricultural technology. John Soper, Pioneer Hi-Bred vice president for crop genetics research and development, says his company works hard to improve productivity in those countries through better genetic solutions.
"We have research operations in South Africa, Kenya and Egypt, and we are selling corn throughout eastern Africa. We're working to bring hybrid products to smaller farmers to help maximize yields," Soper says.
"We have millions of customers in India and work with small farmers and villages to provide seed that meets local needs," he continues.
"We have biotech research labs in India and China. We've recently increased breeding efforts aimed at expanding the adoption of higher-yielding hybrid rice in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and other Asian nations. We're also working to improve N utilization efficiency in maize to enable higher productivity in countries where nutrient inputs may be limited.
"There are certainly infrastructural and political issues that present challenges in developing nations, but we are committed to increasing productivity in these regions, because global acres available for agricultural production are not expected to grow significantly," Soper says.
Moving technology worldwide, critical to feeding the growing population, is now a theme for agribusiness. "Several recent significant investments will expand our global manufacturing capacity, including many in places where opportunity for improved productivity is greatest, such as China, India and Russia," Deere's DeVries says.
Still, he adds the U.S. must continue to play a leading role as a food supplier. "Everybody has to contribute. We believe doubling production will happen, that there will be a whole package of new seed technologies, more efficient agronomic practices, better use of water and more precision in critical planting and crop-care systems. We expect significant growth opportunities, but it's also going to be a significant challenge for all of us in agriculture," DeVries says.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/
About 7 billion people now live on the planet. Over the next four decades, the equivalent of more than one and a half Chinas will be added, and, by 2050, world population will hit 9 billion, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) projects.
Those people have to eat. Many, particularly in China and India, have more disposable income than ever and want additional protein in their diet. At the same time, demand for corn to make ethanol may continue to increase. All of this means grain production needs to double in 40 years, the FAO says. It will be an unprecedented market opportunity for farmers and ranchers who can rev up production systems to meet the challenge.
"The future is extremely bright for the U.S., where farmers should see higher-than-historic prices. It will still be a commodity business, and there will be a lot of volatility around that trend line, but things look very positive long-term," says Robert Thompson, who through the years has served as Purdue University's agriculture dean, the World Bank's director of rural development and USDA's assistant secretary for economics, among other positions.
Agricultural ministers of the G20 countries focused on food security at a Paris meeting this summer, calling for more research and improved productivity to reduce supply volatility. About the same time, the Global Harvest Initiative group (www.globalharvestinitiative.org) issued a report outlining a $90 billion annual shortfall in agricultural research funding. That gap makes the task of doubling agricultural productivity in 40 years a formidable one, says William Lesher, the group's executive director.
MUTUAL RESOURCEFULNESS
Yet, it's crucial the world's farmers find ways to do it. "We have the tools to be successful in meeting the great global challenge of our time -- to essentially double agricultural production to meet the demands of the nine billion who will crowd our planet in the year 2050," says Jim Borel, DuPont executive vice president.
To do that requires "collaborative ingenuity," he says, with agribusiness companies, universities, government researchers and agricultural producers working together to find solutions.
"The highly productive U.S. agriculture sector has played a key role in meeting global demand in the past and will continue to do so as producers innovate and adopt new technologies," says Doug DeVries, Deere & Co. senior vice president of agriculture and turf global marketing services. "And that innovation must continue to meet society's future needs."
Adds DuPont's Borel: "As an innovation industry, we should adopt principles of creativity from our agricultural past and other fields in our technological present. With collaborative ingenuity, I am confident that we will build solutions that will surpass agricultural trend lines. In this case, historical trends are not, I believe, a speed limit on the future."
Breaking those barriers may mean changing how we do business. "We have to come out with technologies that drive improvement going forward," says Jennifer Shaw, head of sustainability for North America at Syngenta. "If we stick with today's practices, we may never get there. We have to develop outcome-based metrics. What are the practices and new technologies we could develop that move the needle further toward these outcomes?"
Meeting the new demand curve will require every bit of efficiency farmers and ranchers can muster. Doubling production with the same amount of water used today, or even less, will be necessary. Food prices, which have spiked and caused periodic riots in developing nations since 2007, will most likely continue climbing. Oxfam International, a British charity whose goal is to "find lasting solutions to poverty and injustice," estimates that demand for food will increase 70% by 2050, while the prices of key commodities like corn will rise 120% to 180% by 2030.
QUANTUM LEAP?
Along with pumped-up demand, can U.S. crop yields increase at an appreciable rate? Corn yields since 1980 have increased annually by an average of just under 2 bushels per acre. For soybeans, the trend is 0.4 bushels. After 5,000 years of plant-breeding work to get to this point, is it reasonable to expect a huge leap in a couple of decades?
Robb Fraley, Monsanto chief technology officer, thinks so. He predicts 2000-level corn and soybean yields will double by 2030 in the U.S., but also in countries where farmers have access to current and anticipated seed choices. That means national yield averages of 400-plus-bushel-per-acre corn could be commonplace on prime Corn Belt soils. Fraley says the boost will come from a combination of factors, including genetic improvement, biotech traits, improved farm-management practices, seed and fungicide treatments, and even architectural changes in the plant itself.
"Plant breeding is going through a complete renaissance. The industry has made remarkable advances the last few years," Fraley says, pointing out the importance of using gene mapping. "Ten years ago, the best plant breeders used to keep track of a dozen or so gene markers. Now they look at thousands of markers. In a couple of years, they'll track every gene in corn."
Gerald Tumbleson, a corn/soybean grower in Sherburn, Minn., and former National Corn Growers Association president, thinks yields will indeed double by 2030, but he won't be satisfied with that.
"We're increasing corn yield, but have done it with traits and the same germplasm. I want to see a quantum leap in germplasm," Tumbleson says. His ideal corn hybrid: A 4-foot-tall plant with two ears instead of a 10- or 12-foot stalk with one ear. "The reason we need it is water, which is going to be a critical issue," he continues. "We can do that if we put efforts to it. Corn has the potential to make an ear at every leaf."
SKEPTICS ABOUT INCREASING YIELDS
Not everyone agrees the seed and trait companies will coax yields beyond long-term trend lines. One prominent skeptic is Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute and author of numerous books on food, economic and environmental issues. "I don't think we're going to see doubling yields. We're too close to the limits of photosynthesis now. As long as we're dependent on it, we're constrained by that limit," Brown says.
He points out world rice and wheat yields flattened during the past decade. "Farmers have caught up with the scientists. That doesn't mean someone won't come up with something. But it's like record times for the mile run. Runners made big cuts until that first 4-minute mile. Since then, the cuts in times have been incremental. It's a physiological thing for plants as well as animals," he says.
Whatever level yields eventually hit, U.S. farmers will continue using cutting-edge technology in an effort to efficiently produce more grain. As many see it, that is the only way to do business.
"We have a moral and ethical imperative to step up our efforts. If people are going to bed hungry, and you have the ability to feed them, you have to do your best to do that," says Bart Ruth, Rising City, Neb., corn/soybean farmer and former American Soybean Association president.
"I am not sure it's possible to double U.S. corn yields by 2030; that is truly an ambitious goal, and I admire Monsanto for having the courage to publicly proclaim it," says Kevin Pixley, University of Wisconsin plant breeder and leader of the corn biofortification project at CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center). "I would not be disappointed if they achieve half of that, but I would be disappointed if they, and all of us in the agriculture sector, did not try.
"My main theme is that it should be doable to double yields in some of the second, third, fourth, fifth most important producing nations," he continues. "This would make a huge impact toward meeting global needs, perhaps making it non-essential to double U.S. corn yields, and perhaps representing a more worthy goal."
PRODUCTIVITY DILEMMA
How much developing can nations improve their ag output remains the biggest question mark in the food dilemma picture. For now, corn yield in sub-Saharan Africa stagnates at a level of production U.S. farmers reached by World War II.
"In many developing countries, crop yields are extremely low; they haven't started to take advantage of the scientific and technological innovations," says Gebisa Ejeta, a native of Ethiopia who is a Purdue University plant genetics professor and winner of the 2009 World Food Prize. "There is a much greater chance of increasing yield potential there if we can work on things like drought tolerance and pest and disease resistance like we have done in the developed world.
"We need to encourage private sector investment in developing countries," she adds. "Then improving yields becomes a much easier task. Just in the last seven or eight years, in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, we have seen technology making a difference in people's lives. We need to make sure there is more and more access to it," Ejeta says.
Danielle Nierenberg, director of the Worldwatch Institute's Nourishing the Planet initiative financed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, looked at agricultural projects in 25 sub-Saharan nations over 16 weeks earlier this year. She saw lots of room for improvement, but noted positive changes, as well (www.nourishingtheplanet.org).
"The big seed and agrichemical companies are working there now, which is good, but this new investment needs to focus on food sovereignty for farmers and consumers, not on corporate agriculture," Nierenberg says.
"We're seeing lots of involvement by China in sub-Saharan Africa to try to meet its own food needs," she continues. "The Chinese are buying land in Africa. They're building roads to make it easier for farmers to get to market. In some cases, they're the only ones building infrastructure. They're in those countries that are most at risk for hunger."
Developing nations could indeed be a good market for modern agricultural technology. John Soper, Pioneer Hi-Bred vice president for crop genetics research and development, says his company works hard to improve productivity in those countries through better genetic solutions.
"We have research operations in South Africa, Kenya and Egypt, and we are selling corn throughout eastern Africa. We're working to bring hybrid products to smaller farmers to help maximize yields," Soper says.
"We have millions of customers in India and work with small farmers and villages to provide seed that meets local needs," he continues.
"We have biotech research labs in India and China. We've recently increased breeding efforts aimed at expanding the adoption of higher-yielding hybrid rice in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and other Asian nations. We're also working to improve N utilization efficiency in maize to enable higher productivity in countries where nutrient inputs may be limited.
"There are certainly infrastructural and political issues that present challenges in developing nations, but we are committed to increasing productivity in these regions, because global acres available for agricultural production are not expected to grow significantly," Soper says.
Moving technology worldwide, critical to feeding the growing population, is now a theme for agribusiness. "Several recent significant investments will expand our global manufacturing capacity, including many in places where opportunity for improved productivity is greatest, such as China, India and Russia," Deere's DeVries says.
Still, he adds the U.S. must continue to play a leading role as a food supplier. "Everybody has to contribute. We believe doubling production will happen, that there will be a whole package of new seed technologies, more efficient agronomic practices, better use of water and more precision in critical planting and crop-care systems. We expect significant growth opportunities, but it's also going to be a significant challenge for all of us in agriculture," DeVries says.
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/
Posted by Colvin & Co. at 9/8/2011 5:30 AM 
Categories: Food Security
Tags: Africa agriculture corn exports farming food Planting India
Categories: Food Security
Tags: Africa agriculture corn exports farming food Planting India
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