According to today’s USDA weekly progress report of the 18 primary corn producing states, the percentage of crop rated good or excellent fell by two percentage points to 60% over this past week. The percentage of crop rated poor or very poor increased by three percentage point to 16%, while the percentage of crop rated fair remained flat at 24%. Condition ratings still remain behind the 2010 crop, as 71% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition, 19% was in fair condition, and 10% was in poor or very poor condition.

Of the 18 primary producing states, 11 states have reached the dent stage, which accounts for 7% of the total crop, compared to the same period last year and a 5 year historical average of 14% and 10% respectively. North Carolina and Texas has progressed the furthest at 71% and 61% respectively.

For the week ending August 7th the percentage of crop that has reached the dough stage increased 14 percentage points to 32%. This is still behind the pace of the 2010 crop and 5 year historical averages of 49% and 38% respectively. The USDA also reported estimates for silking at 93% compared to estimates of 97% and 93% for the 2010 crop and 5 year historical average respectively. Missouri is the state whose corn crop is ahead of both its five year average and 2010 pace for silking.

For the 18 primary soybean producing states, crop conditions were mixed since the last report. The percentage of crop rated good or excellent increased one percentage point to 61%. The percentage of crop rated fair decreased two percentage point to 26%, and the percent rated poor or very poor increased one percentage point to 13%. Compared to last year 66% was rated good or excellent, 23% was rated fair, and 11% was rated poor or very poor.

The USDA estimates that 51% of the soybean crop had set pods as of August 7th; this represented an increase of 17 percentage points. Pod setting estimates for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year average were 69% and 63% respectively. The USDA also reported that 87% of the soybean crop has bloomed, compared to 92% last year, and a 5 year historical average of 89%. For the week ending August 7th, only Missouri and Wisconsin are ahead of their five year average and 2010 blooming pace.

Progress in the winter wheat harvest increased four percentage points over the past week. The USDA reports harvested winter wheat estimates for the week ending August 7th, at 85% of the total crop, compared to a 5 year average and 2010 estimate of 91% and 87% respectively.

The USDA estimates that 66% of the spring wheat crop was rated good or excellent, a week over week decrease of four percentage points. Conditions for the 2011 crop have now fallen behind the 2010 crop which registered 82% for the same period. Headed spring wheat, continues to lag its five year average and 2010 performance. The USDA reported that 96% of the crop has headed compared to 99% for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year historical average of 100%. The USDA began reporting estimates for the 2011 spring wheat harvest this week. Currently, only 6% of the 2011 crop has been harvested, compared to 17% for the same period last year and a 5 year average of 24%.

Commodity prices remained chopping since last week’s crop progress report. Fiscal issues in Europe and the United States continue to cause uncertainty in all markets. Over the last week, corn prices fell less than a percent or $0.06 to close at $6.75 per bushel, soybeans decreased $0.49 to close at $13.09 per bushel, and wheat fell $0.20 to $6.56. Corn and soybeans still remain higher year-over-year up, 73% and 24% respectively, while wheat prices are now 5% lower than they were last year.

Next week we look forward to the usual estimates provided in this report.

- Colvin