Crop Progress: Crops Continue to be Harmed by Excessive Heat
According to today’s USDA weekly progress report of the 18 primary corn producing states, the percentage of crop rated good or excellent fell by four percentage points to 62% over this past week. The percentage of crop rated poor or very poor increased by three percentage point to 14%, while the percentage of crop rated fair increased to 24% from 23% the previous week. Condition ratings still remain behind the 2010 crop, as 72% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition, 19% was in fair condition, and 9% was in poor or very poor condition. Decreases in crop conditions stem from the seasonality hot weather and limited amounts of precipitation experienced throughout the Midwest over the past two weeks. However, while temperatures have remained elevated much of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin received relief from measureable amounts of rainfall this past weekend.
For the week ending July 24th we have our first look at USDA estimates for the percentage of the 2011 corn crop that has reached the dough stage. Of the 18 primary producing states, 10 states have reached the dough stage, which accounts for 9% of the total crop, compared to the same period last year and a 5 year historical average of 16% and 12% respectively. The USDA also reported its estimates for silking at 65% compared to estimates of 82% and 69% for the 2010 crop and 5 year historical average respectively. Currently, no state has a corn crop that is ahead of both its five year average and 2010 pace.
For the 18 primary soybean producing states, crop conditions worsen over the past week. The percentage of crop rated good or excellent decreased two percentage points to 62%. The percentage of crop rated fair increased one percentage point to 27%, and the percent rated poor or very poor increased one percentage point to 11%. Compared to last year 67% was rated good or excellent, 23% was rated fair, and 10% was rated poor or very poor.
The USDA began reporting estimates for pod setting this week. The USDA estimates that 16% of the soybean crop had set pods as of July 24th, compared to estimates for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year average of 32% and 27% respectively. The USDA also reported that 60% of the soybean crop has bloomed, compared to 73% last year, and a 5 year historical average of 68%. For the week ending July 24th, only North Carolina and Louisiana are ahead of their five year average and 2010 blooming pace.
Progress in the winter wheat harvest continues, but at a slower rate than previously reported. Over the past week, harvests concluded in Indiana, Kansas, and Missouri, began in Idaho, but remain to begin in Montana. The USDA reports harvested winter wheat estimates for the week ending July 24th, at 75% of the total crop, compared to a 5 year average and 2010 estimate of 80% and 78% respectively.
The USDA estimates that 74% of the spring wheat crop was rated good or excellent, a week over week increase by one percentage point, but still below the 83% registered a year ago. Headed spring wheat, continues to lag its five year average and 2010 performance. The USDA reported that 83% of the crop has headed compared to 92% for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year historical average of 95%.
Commodity prices have been mixed since last week’s crop progress report; normally bullish weather patterns could not push prices higher. We believe fiscal issues in Europe and the United States have caught the market’s attention and caused a bit of uncertainty to enter the macro equation. Corn prices fell 2.7% or $0.19 to close at $6.78 per bushel, soybeans decreased $0.20 to close at $13.63 per bushel, and wheat rose $0.02 to $6.90. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices all remain higher year-over-year up, 78%, 35%, and 19% respectively.
Next week we will have our first look at the USDA corn crop dent estimates, along with the usual estimates provided in this report.
- Colvin
For the week ending July 24th we have our first look at USDA estimates for the percentage of the 2011 corn crop that has reached the dough stage. Of the 18 primary producing states, 10 states have reached the dough stage, which accounts for 9% of the total crop, compared to the same period last year and a 5 year historical average of 16% and 12% respectively. The USDA also reported its estimates for silking at 65% compared to estimates of 82% and 69% for the 2010 crop and 5 year historical average respectively. Currently, no state has a corn crop that is ahead of both its five year average and 2010 pace.
For the 18 primary soybean producing states, crop conditions worsen over the past week. The percentage of crop rated good or excellent decreased two percentage points to 62%. The percentage of crop rated fair increased one percentage point to 27%, and the percent rated poor or very poor increased one percentage point to 11%. Compared to last year 67% was rated good or excellent, 23% was rated fair, and 10% was rated poor or very poor.
The USDA began reporting estimates for pod setting this week. The USDA estimates that 16% of the soybean crop had set pods as of July 24th, compared to estimates for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year average of 32% and 27% respectively. The USDA also reported that 60% of the soybean crop has bloomed, compared to 73% last year, and a 5 year historical average of 68%. For the week ending July 24th, only North Carolina and Louisiana are ahead of their five year average and 2010 blooming pace.
Progress in the winter wheat harvest continues, but at a slower rate than previously reported. Over the past week, harvests concluded in Indiana, Kansas, and Missouri, began in Idaho, but remain to begin in Montana. The USDA reports harvested winter wheat estimates for the week ending July 24th, at 75% of the total crop, compared to a 5 year average and 2010 estimate of 80% and 78% respectively.
The USDA estimates that 74% of the spring wheat crop was rated good or excellent, a week over week increase by one percentage point, but still below the 83% registered a year ago. Headed spring wheat, continues to lag its five year average and 2010 performance. The USDA reported that 83% of the crop has headed compared to 92% for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year historical average of 95%.
Commodity prices have been mixed since last week’s crop progress report; normally bullish weather patterns could not push prices higher. We believe fiscal issues in Europe and the United States have caught the market’s attention and caused a bit of uncertainty to enter the macro equation. Corn prices fell 2.7% or $0.19 to close at $6.78 per bushel, soybeans decreased $0.20 to close at $13.63 per bushel, and wheat rose $0.02 to $6.90. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices all remain higher year-over-year up, 78%, 35%, and 19% respectively.
Next week we will have our first look at the USDA corn crop dent estimates, along with the usual estimates provided in this report.
- Colvin
Posted by Colvin & Co. at 7/25/2011 4:38 PM 
Categories: USDA Update
Tags: corn farming food soybeans wheat USDA
Categories: USDA Update
Tags: corn farming food soybeans wheat USDA
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