With emergence of corn all but wrapped up we continue to look at the USDA’s estimates for corn crop conditions while turning our attention to the crops silking progress. According to today’s USDA weekly progress report of the 18 primary producing states, the percentage of crop rated good or excellent increased one percentage point to 69% compared to last week. The percentage of crop rated poor or very poor remained the same at 9%, while the percentage of crop rated fair decreased to 22%. For the same time period in 2010 71% of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition, 19% was in fair condition, and 10% was in poor or very poor condition.

Our first look at silking for the 2011 corn crop continues to lag behind both the 2010 crop and the 5 year historical average. The USDA estimates that 6% of the 2011 corn crop has silked, compared to 18% last year, while the 5 year average for this time period is 12%. In 2010, 16 of the 18 primary producing states reported silking progress, while only 7 states have reported progress to date. The corn crops in North Carolina and Texas are progressing the fastest with 89% and 60% of their respective crop silked.

Of the 18 primary soybean producing states, 96% of soybeans have emerged. The 5 year historical average is 96% emerged while 97% of the soybean crop had emerged for this week last year. The USDA also showed that 66% of the soybean crop was rated good or excellent, up from 64% last week, and right in line with the 66% registered a year ago.

In addition to corn silking, we have our first look at the 2011 soybean crop blooming progress and as expected progress is behind last year’s pace and the 5 year historical average. The USDA estimates that 8% of the soybean crop has bloomed, compared to 21% last year, and a 5 year historical average of 18%. The Louisiana and Mississippi soybean crops are maturing the fastest with 64% and 55% of their respective crop bloomed.

Winter wheat harvest continues its above average pace, with harvests finishing in Arkansas and Oklahoma and beginning in Ohio and Nebraska this past week. The USDA reports harvested winter wheat estimates this week at 56% of the total crop, compared to a 5 year average and 2010 estimates of 52% respectively. There was little variance in the condition of the winter wheat crop, 36% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, while 41% is in poor or very poor condition. Last year, 63% of the crop was in good or excellent condition while only 11% was in poor or very poor condition. The percent of headed winter wheat for the 2011 crop is 97% this week, which is one percentage point lower than 2010 and in line with the 5 year historical average of 97%.

The USDA estimates that 94% of the spring wheat crop has emerged; compared to a 5 year historical average and 2010 estimate of 100%. The report also showed that 70% of the spring wheat crop was rated good or excellent, up from 69% last week, but still below the 83% registered a year ago. This week also brings us our first progress report of headed spring wheat, only 13% of the crop has headed compared to 47% for the same period in 2010 and a 5 year historical average of 52%. Again, the cool/wet spring has continued to delay the progress of the spring wheat crop.

Trading in the July contracts for corn, soybeans, and wheat has been extremely volatile after the USDA’s June 30th stocks and plantings report. Corn prices increased $0.01 over the past week to close at $6.84 per bushel, soybeans remained flat at $13.30 per bushel, and wheat continued its downward trend falling another 4% to $6.15. However, corn, soybean, and wheat prices all remain higher than they were this time last year, 88%, 38%, and 26% respectively.

Next week we look forward to the USDA’s continued maturity reports for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat along with estimates of harvest progression for winter wheat

- Colvin