(DTN) -- Heading into the 2010 USDA Prospective Plantings report, estimates are showing corn planted acres at around 88.9 million, up 2.4 million from last year's "final" plantings number of 86.5 million. The range of estimates doesn't do the pre-report chatter justice, for there are reports that some in the industry believe corn acres could actually be reduced.

If I had to lean a direction, I would say the number could come in closer to the high side of estimates at 90 million acres or greater. The weather across much of the Midwest is starting to clear (yes, I know, moisture remains an issue), but events over the last few years have indicated corn can get a later start and still produce well.

Soybeans are also expected to increase, with the pre-report average coming in at 78.6 million acres as opposed to the record 77.5 million planted in 2009. Again, given the amount of extra acres available due in part to the 6-million-acre reduction in winter wheat, it would not be all that surprising to see the soybean number at or above the high side of the range at 79.5 million.

Cotton acres are also expected to increase with the average estimate coming in at 10.4 million acres as compared to the 9.15 million planted in 2009. It's possible that this number could come in near the low end of estimates near 10.2 million.

The bottom line is that the prospective plantings numbers will most likely be bearish, though the market may not trade that way immediately. Over the last five years, corn acres have increased 1.2 percent from the USDA Prospective Plantings report through the release of the final number in January. Soybeans show a 1 percent decline (giving credence to the old adage that once farmers start planting corn, they keep going until the seed runs out), though this would still leave soybean acreage at an all-time high.

QUARTERLY STOCKS

Finding an analyst who isn't talking about record-large corn stocks on hand as of March 1 is about as difficult as someone who didn't have Kansas, Kentucky or Syracuse winning on their March Madness bracket.

The pre-report average estimate of 7.5 billion bushels of corn would indeed be record large, but one must remember that this market started with record-large supplies of 14.8 bb. That being the case, total demand (disappearance) for the second quarter (Dec-Jan-Feb) would be 23.1 percent, slightly above the average usage of 22.8 percent and not as bearish as the number alone would indicate.

On the other hand, it is hard to argue with the fact soybeans are expected to be bullish. The average pre-report estimate of 1.2 bb would indicate usage of about 32.2 percent, well above the average of 28 percent. For the year, the 1.2 bb would indicate slightly more than one-third of the beginning 3.5 bb of supply remaining on hand, as compared to the average of 43.8 percent after the first half of the marketing year.

And then, on the other hand (yes, three hands, isn't that cool?), there is wheat. The average pre-report estimate of 1.36 bb would imply third-quarter usage of 13.4 percent, well below the average of 15.6 percent. But, if you want a bullish nugget (of fools gold?), this 13.4 percent is above last year's third-quarter demand of only 13 percent. And the 1.36 bb estimate would not be record large -- that would be the 1.45 bb reported in March 1999 -- though it would be almost 325 mb larger than the March 2009 estimate.

The bottom line is corn ending stocks could come in neutral to bullish, soybeans undoubtedly bullish, with wheat on the other end of the spectrum at unequivocally bearish.

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