WASDE: Grains supplies increased following Acreage Report
On Friday the USDA updated the US and World 2008/09 and 2009/10 balance sheet estimates for major agricultural commodities in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This report continues the bearish theme from the June 30 Acreage Report as the USDA see corn supplies expanding. The USDA forecasts that for 2009/10, U.S. farmers will harvest their largest soybean crop and the second-largest corn crop ever.
The USDA raised their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 by 460 million bushels to 1.55 billion bushels. Ending stocks were reduced as higher estimated corn plantings from the June 30 Acreage Report boosts production prospects. The USDA substantially lowered the 2009/10 season-average farm price for corn to $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel from $3.90 to $4.70 per bushel. The DesMoines Register estimates that "A drop of that size represents a paper loss of $1.3 billion for Iowa farmers, assuming they get the same yields this year as they did in 2008."
The USDA also lowered its forecast of corn used to make ethanol for 2008/09 by 100 million bushels, to 3.65 billion bushels, due to lower U.S. fuel use. The 2009/10 estimate was unchanged at 4.1 billion bushels.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 were raised by 40 million bushels to 250 million due to a 1.5 million acre increase in planting. The USDA lowered soybean prices for the 2009-10 crop to $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel, down 40 cents from last month's forecast.
The USDA raised its forecast of wheat ending stocks for the 2009/10 crop by 59 million bushels to 706 million bushels, which is a 6% increase from last year's estimated ending stocks. The USDA lowered its average farm price range for the 2009/10 crop to $4.80-$5.80 per bushel, from $4.90-$5.90 per bushel.
Click on the link for the full WASDE report: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.
- Colvin
The USDA raised their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 by 460 million bushels to 1.55 billion bushels. Ending stocks were reduced as higher estimated corn plantings from the June 30 Acreage Report boosts production prospects. The USDA substantially lowered the 2009/10 season-average farm price for corn to $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel from $3.90 to $4.70 per bushel. The DesMoines Register estimates that "A drop of that size represents a paper loss of $1.3 billion for Iowa farmers, assuming they get the same yields this year as they did in 2008."
The USDA also lowered its forecast of corn used to make ethanol for 2008/09 by 100 million bushels, to 3.65 billion bushels, due to lower U.S. fuel use. The 2009/10 estimate was unchanged at 4.1 billion bushels.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 were raised by 40 million bushels to 250 million due to a 1.5 million acre increase in planting. The USDA lowered soybean prices for the 2009-10 crop to $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel, down 40 cents from last month's forecast.
The USDA raised its forecast of wheat ending stocks for the 2009/10 crop by 59 million bushels to 706 million bushels, which is a 6% increase from last year's estimated ending stocks. The USDA lowered its average farm price range for the 2009/10 crop to $4.80-$5.80 per bushel, from $4.90-$5.90 per bushel.
Click on the link for the full WASDE report: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.
- Colvin
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