WASDE: Soybean ending stocks at 32 year low
This morning the USDA updated the US and World 2008/09 and 2009/10 balance sheet estimates for major agricultural commodities in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This report continues the bullish theme from May as ending corn stocks are again lowered due to a reduction in forecasted yields and soybean ending stocks drop to a 32 year low.
The USDA lowered their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 by 55 million bushels to 1.09 billion bushels. Any hiccup in corn production could be a major problem and take ending stocks below the psychologically critical 1 billion bushels level. Ending stocks were reduced due primarily to a lower forecasted corn yield as continued planting delays through late May reduced yield prospects, especially for the eastern Corn Belt. The USDA increased the 2009/10 season-average farm price for corn to $3.9 to $4.70 per bushel from $3.70 to $4.50 per bushel.
Planted and harvested corn acres were left unchanged, although we expect both estimates will be reduced in the June 30th acreage report due to the difficult spring planting.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 were reduced by 20 million bushels to a projected 110 million bushels, due an increase in exports and crush demand. Soybean ending stocks are now expected to be the lowest since 1977. Ending stocks for 2009/10 were also reduced 20 million bushels to 210 million. With higher exports and lower stocks, USDA lifted soybean prices for the 2009-10 crop to $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, up 55 cents from last month's forecast.
Make sure to tune in for the June 30th acreage report.
Click on the link for the full WASDE report: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.
- Colvin
The USDA lowered their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 by 55 million bushels to 1.09 billion bushels. Any hiccup in corn production could be a major problem and take ending stocks below the psychologically critical 1 billion bushels level. Ending stocks were reduced due primarily to a lower forecasted corn yield as continued planting delays through late May reduced yield prospects, especially for the eastern Corn Belt. The USDA increased the 2009/10 season-average farm price for corn to $3.9 to $4.70 per bushel from $3.70 to $4.50 per bushel.
Planted and harvested corn acres were left unchanged, although we expect both estimates will be reduced in the June 30th acreage report due to the difficult spring planting.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2008/09 were reduced by 20 million bushels to a projected 110 million bushels, due an increase in exports and crush demand. Soybean ending stocks are now expected to be the lowest since 1977. Ending stocks for 2009/10 were also reduced 20 million bushels to 210 million. With higher exports and lower stocks, USDA lifted soybean prices for the 2009-10 crop to $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, up 55 cents from last month's forecast.
Make sure to tune in for the June 30th acreage report.
Click on the link for the full WASDE report: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.
- Colvin
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