Africa could lose 247 million acres of cropland by 2050 due to climate change according to the June issue of Environment Science and Policy. Much of Africa’s farmland is hot and dry to begin with, now with changing climates, a lot of their cropland is being lost because crops cannot handle increase in temperature. This potential loss of farmland is substantial as the US has approximately 246 million acres that support the top eight producing crops.

The study claims that if proper action is taken this far in advance, small farm communities can still be saved. Philip Thornton, a scientist at the Institute and co-author of the paper, noted “Though unsuitable for crops, the land could still sustain livestock, which are more tolerant to heat and drought, researchers from the Nairobi-based International Livestock Research Institute and the United Kingdom's Waen Associates found.”

In these regions, the 90 day grow-cycle needed for many crops is what’s at risk. The growing season is shortening. The study found that currently in dry farming areas, one out of six crop seasons are affected by dry climate, and that ratio is bound to shrink.

182 countries are trying to get a jump on solving these climate problems. Talks are currently going on in Bonn, Germany. We will get more light on this topic this December when a potential, international climate change deal could be proposed in Copenhagen.

How is farmland going to be affected by this?

Although the African farmland can still be used as pasture, the farmland will no longer be fertile and be able to produce crops. This will significantly reduce the global production of grains and throws a curveball for the supply and demand of farmland globally.

With this much farmland now at risk of being taken out of production, the demand for farmland will undoubtedly be affected. The supply of farmland is decreasing fast enough already. This news of Africa’s climate problem provides another reason to invest in farmland because its value will rise with supply decreasing and demand increasing.

Read more about countries solving this problem by buying farmland in order to protect their food security:

China: http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/2009/02/16/the-fight-for-food-security.aspx

South Korea: http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/2009/05/01/hyundai-heavy-acquiring-russian-farmland.aspx

United Arab Emirates: http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/2009/04/24/un-calling-for-a-code-of-conduct-on-farmland-purchases.aspx

-  Colvin