Nassim Taleb bets on inflation

Nassim Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller "The Black Swan," has made a large bet that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation according to The Wall Street Journal. A substantial increase in inflation is a theme that Farmland Forecast has been highlighting and will be a positive catalyst for farmland prices.

Taleb is associated with Universa Investments L.P., a hedge fund managing roughly $6 billion, which has bet that inflation will reach levels few expect. Universa expects to post large gains if inflation and interest rates reach levels as they did in the 1970s. Universa will invest in options tied to commodities such as corn, crude oil, and copper, as well as options on oil and gold stocks.

Another strategy Universa is investing in, that we have also highlighted, is a bet against Treasury bonds, which decline in price in high inflation environments.

Taleb is famous for the term "black swan," which references the theory that all swans are white. A "black swan" was a metaphor for something that could not exist, until the 18th Century discovery of black swans in Western Australia. Taleb refers to "black swan events," which are something that is extreme and highly unlikely.

Read more about our inflation outlook: http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/2009/02/21/the-stimulus-plan-inflation-expectations-and-what-it-means-for-farmland.aspx

- Colvin

 

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