WASDE: Corn ending stocks lowered by 100mm bushels
This morning the USDA updated both US and World 2008/09 and introduced the 2009/10 balance sheet estimates for major agricultural commodities in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This morning's report continues the bullish theme from last month's as ending stocks are again lowered and 2009/10 corn ending stocks are estimated to be 455 million bushels below 2008/09 ending stocks.
The USDA lowered their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2008/09 by 100 million bushels due to an increase in ethanol use and exports. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected down 28% as use is expected to exceed production by 470 million bushels. The USDA expects the 2008/09 season-average farm price for corn to be $4.1 to $4.30 per bushel and 2009/10 price to be $3.70 to $4.50.
Ethanol use for 2009/10 is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, which reflects the rising Federal biofuels mandate and improved blending incentives as higher gasoline prices increase demand for ethanol. Ethanol producer returns, however, will remain under pressure as excess production capacity weighs on producer margins.
U.S. soybean ending stocks are reduced 35 million bushels to a projected 130 million, due primarily to a 30 million bushel increase in exports. Soybean production for 2009/10 is projected at 3.2 billion bushels, up 236 million from 2008/09 reflecting a small increase in harvested area and a trend yield of 42.6 bushels per acre.
The 2009 beef export forecast was reduced from last month due to economic weakness limiting export growth and continued concerns due to the A/H1N1 (Swine flu) influenza.
We didn't see any major surprises in this morning's report. Focus will now return back to planting progress. If corn isn't planted soon, ending stocks for the year could be reduced by 30% below 1 billion bushels.
Click on the link for the full WASDE report: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.
- Colvin
The USDA lowered their estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks for 2008/09 by 100 million bushels due to an increase in ethanol use and exports. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected down 28% as use is expected to exceed production by 470 million bushels. The USDA expects the 2008/09 season-average farm price for corn to be $4.1 to $4.30 per bushel and 2009/10 price to be $3.70 to $4.50.
Ethanol use for 2009/10 is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, which reflects the rising Federal biofuels mandate and improved blending incentives as higher gasoline prices increase demand for ethanol. Ethanol producer returns, however, will remain under pressure as excess production capacity weighs on producer margins.
U.S. soybean ending stocks are reduced 35 million bushels to a projected 130 million, due primarily to a 30 million bushel increase in exports. Soybean production for 2009/10 is projected at 3.2 billion bushels, up 236 million from 2008/09 reflecting a small increase in harvested area and a trend yield of 42.6 bushels per acre.
The 2009 beef export forecast was reduced from last month due to economic weakness limiting export growth and continued concerns due to the A/H1N1 (Swine flu) influenza.
We didn't see any major surprises in this morning's report. Focus will now return back to planting progress. If corn isn't planted soon, ending stocks for the year could be reduced by 30% below 1 billion bushels.
Click on the link for the full WASDE report: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.
- Colvin
Posted by Colvin & Co. at 5/13/2009 8:28 AM 
Categories: USDA Update
Tags: ethanol agriculture USDA commodities
Categories: USDA Update
Tags: ethanol agriculture USDA commodities
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